https://www.capriole-llc.com/news daily 0.75 2021-06-23 https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/2021/6/23/us-shale-in-2021-global-swing-producers-or-dead-cats-bouncing monthly 0.5 2021-06-24 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1624482782160-5RGCKM9ZA3ZMI4SRL5JS/Picture+1.png Blogs - US Shale in 2021: Global swing producers or dead cats bouncing? - Make it stand out Frontispiece: In the last two “super cycles” US Shale has played the role of global swing producer, with higher oil prices leading to higher rig count and shale development and production, leading to action from OPEC to regain market share. The events of March last year were particularly dramatic, with Saudi Arabia taking action to increase supply just as the pandemic began to choke demand. The oil price has gradually been creeping back up since and now with demand approaching pre-pandemic heights, US rig count is on the up. But what will Shale 4.0 look like? A new beginning? Or a dead cat bounce? (Source: with apologies to the Salt Lake Tribune) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1624485644999-SUKUMVII8MBS1WLX3CWU/Picture+1.png Blogs - US Shale in 2021: Global swing producers or dead cats bouncing? - Make it stand out Figure 1: The US shale supercycles of rig count versus oil price (Data: EIA; Graphic: Capriole Energy). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1624485692091-9N76E5C90R9ZS5QDFSCO/Picture+1.png Blogs - US Shale in 2021: Global swing producers or dead cats bouncing? - Make it stand out Figure 2: An example of value destruction by US shaleco EOG. (Data: Yahoo Finance; Graphic: Capriole Energy) https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/2019/9/27/road-trip-by-ev-n674y monthly 0.5 2020-09-16 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1600113615732-EXYCWY4MGJQ07WTMFQEH/Picture1.png Blogs - Road trip! (by EV) , 2020 version Figure 4: Partisan division on climate change and the economy. (Source: Pew Research Center). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1600120843670-5QW88J1HDMZEURQ9VVHB/Picture1.png Blogs - Road trip! (by EV) , 2020 version Figure 6: Texas electricity generation by fuel type and overall emissions intensity (Data: EIA; Graphic: Capriole Energy). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1599945979700-LY68X01IV6LKR7R7BAW2/Picture1.png Blogs - Road trip! (by EV) , 2020 version Figure 3: The Product Adoption Curve from Innovation Diffusion Theory. Source: crazy egg.com. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1600122522092-OKI5XZ658RDY5AE5IOOZ/IMG_6811.jpeg Blogs - Road trip! (by EV) , 2020 version Endpiece: The author in Grand Tetons National Park. America has a wonderful national environmental heritage. Even where we have already modified it beyond return, we need to do a much better job of maintaining (or improving) our environment for future generations. The challenge is multi-faceted and can only be met if we make decisions, particularly about energy and other natural resources, that are more sustainable, benefiting the world today, but not at the expense of tomorrow. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1599942940828-8BNEPNGRRUSZB9HVQU0F/Picture1.png Blogs - Road trip! (by EV) , 2020 version Frontispiece: Wind farms in north Texas. A recent two week EV road trip through seven states to the Rocky Mountains and back illustrates both the opportunity of mobility electrification, and the associated and enormous challenges. Seeing (diesel) trucks hauling individual blades of wind turbines along the I40 freeway in Texas illustrates the real necessity for oil (and natural gas) to be part of the energy transition. While the cost and emissions savings of our Tesla Model 3 make consummate sense in our kitchen table economics, there are technological and especially cultural mountains to climb to transform mobility in America. The further greening of electricity, particularly to 80% let alone 100% is also an enormous challenge, particularly if low cost and reliability are to be maintained. I believe America’s energy systems need to be transformed, but pragmatic and considered solutions are required, including embracing the role of oil and gas. I review the electricity generation profile of Texas as an illustration of the role of natural gas and hence at scale and cost-effective CCS if emissions targets are to be achieved and include a plug for research into geothermal as the Rocky Mountain and West Coast states have the highest geothermal gradients in the country. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1600120295640-GIDPCJXMZM1Y3LLMSNLC/Picture1.png Blogs - Road trip! (by EV) , 2020 version Figure 5: CO2 emissions intensity in electricity generation by year for the seven road trip states. (Source: Data: EIA; Graphic: Capriole Energy). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1599943701755-8CY5IUU4T84XI736JDET/Screen+Shot+2020-09-12+at+3.45.16+PM.png Blogs - Road trip! (by EV) , 2020 version Figure 1: Our road trip route. (Source: personal car data on teslafi.com, nut sure when the Moab, Utah to Santa Rosa, New Mexico wasn’t properly captured) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1599943902207-UEPZ5IBOJIIM793LAWMA/Picture1.png Blogs - Road trip! (by EV) , 2020 version Figure 2: Average state-wide CO2 emitted (g/kWh) in electricity generation in 2018. Multiply by our average efficiency of 0.266 kWh/mile to get emissions per mile for our Tesla. (Data source: EIA) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1600121595655-4136JT76TVIOU6B1IFJT/Picture1.png Blogs - Road trip! (by EV) , 2020 version Figure 7: Temperature at 6 km depth illustrating how the Rocky Mountain and West Coast states are endowed with the richest geothermal resources in the USA. (Source: Blackwell et al. 2006). https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/2020/8/17/b monthly 0.5 2020-08-19 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1597703624710-EOD6K8XS3KOGB8GOBMQT/Picture1.png Blogs - Is bp’s big move towards renewables a blueprint for other oil & gas companies? Figure 1: Total Shareholder Return and Dividend Yield of bp, NextEra and EOG. (Source: Data: Yahoo Finance; Graphic: Capriole Energy). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1597694228123-L02QLAXXR3CCTTI1EH4D/czlk5l9wcaalwk.png Blogs - Is bp’s big move towards renewables a blueprint for other oil & gas companies? Frontispiece: bp’s announcement last week on 2Q financial results and more details on their strategy to be net-zero by 2050 was met with a wide range of responses. Critics included those that see stopping investment in fossil fuels as the only way to fight climate change, and hence saw the swing towards renewables as simply not good enough. Other critics can’t see how bp’s new model can make the same returns as before or simply doubt that bp is capable of the change required. I consider the energy transition as a very complex problem requiring eclectic solutions with companies having to redefine their triple bottom line: societal purpose, environmental impact, and profit for shareholders, all three of which have to be optimized together, just as society has to manage its energy trilemma of cleaner, yet cheaper and more secure energy. In this blog, I analyze what bp’s sell-off of 40% of its oil production by 2030 in exchange for a 17 fold increase in renewable power generation to around 50 gW could mean for their financial performance. My analysis is based on comparing two different energy companies. EOG, one of the best run US shale/tight oil players has assets that if bp is right about the forward oil price, will struggle to make much full-cycle return in the next decade. For the sake of the inquiry, I use EOG as representative of hydrocarbon assets like BPX Energy, bp’s shale business in the US, and assume this is the kind of low return, capital intensive business that will be divested. To represent the other part of the exchange I use NextEra, a renewables-biased power generator and investor in infrastructure. While this transformation will need some complex change in the cultural and capability aspects of bp, the results of my inquiry suggest that this particular part of bp’s strategy could be the right answer, but needs great execution to generate distinctive shareholder value. There is an interesting opportunity for US-based oil & gas companies to re-purpose and diversify in a similar way. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1597786743818-6N50ZF5R14O0HAFCR18K/Weighted%2BAverages%2Bby%2BTechnology.jpg Blogs - Is bp’s big move towards renewables a blueprint for other oil & gas companies? Figure 3: Changes in costs to install and generate power from renewables. (Source: IRENA). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1597789101988-G7IU2ISYO45RJX72253R/Picture1.png Blogs - Is bp’s big move towards renewables a blueprint for other oil & gas companies? Figure 4: A simple exponential growth model of bp’s installation of 50 gW of renewable power generation by 2030 at an average of $1.5 billion per gW. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1597786034901-TWXVR8Q36AIHH2JR10KD/Picture1.png Blogs - Is bp’s big move towards renewables a blueprint for other oil & gas companies? Figure 2: Financial performance of EOG and NextEra, two end members of the energy transition mix. bp financials are shown on differently scaled charts for reference (Source: Data: Yahoo Finance; Graphics: Capriole Energy). https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/2020/8/2/irelands-energy-trilemma-1 monthly 0.5 2021-04-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1597008329094-8F4K9VS5B3OYV1L3ZZOL/Picture1.png Blogs - Ireland's energy trilemmas Figure 6: Heat as a final energy (in mWh) in Ireland. (Source: Data: SEAI; Graphic: Capriole Energy) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1597071453604-T248ZSHVPMN5LRB0HF7P/Picture1.png Blogs - Ireland's energy trilemmas Figure 8: Fuel costs for heating Irish homes. The data is from SEAI except for solar thermal which is calculated by amortizing a €10,000 installation over 20 years. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1597237077734-4DVHR2PI8PS06GXG5LWQ/Picture1.png Blogs - Ireland's energy trilemmas Figure 11: Private cars in Ireland by fuel type and the reality of EV growth. (Source: Historical data: CSO; Graphic and projections: Capriole Energy). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1596743992160-VBOJGIFY57X1M59S6JPG/Picture1.png Blogs - Ireland's energy trilemmas Frontispiece: Ireland, as part of the European Union, is working hard to reduce GHG gas emissions which mostly come from energy usage. Strengthening public opinion on climate change risk is for the most part influencing policy towards the environmental impact part of the Energy Trilemma. In this paper, I return to the subject of the energy transition in Ireland, and present some viewpoints about the counterpoints of energy security (or reliability) and affordability. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1596746834265-3AAP15SP692XIK3MGB6V/image-asset.png Blogs - Ireland's energy trilemmas Figure 2: GDP, Energy Consumption and Emissions per capital. (Source data from IEA, IMF and BP Energy Statistical Review, graphic, Capriole Energy) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1597173459362-FA4OFS5SDBGOZH2CTWUJ/Picture1.png Blogs - Ireland's energy trilemmas Figure 12: Cost of ownership calculations for two fancy cars available in Ireland, one ICE and one BEV. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1596745255279-BYY1DQZ2V8XOKQN4R1U9/Picture1.png Blogs - Ireland's energy trilemmas Figure 1: Emissions history and targets/projections across sectors other than agriculture, waste disposal and land use. (Source EPA) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1597083056857-FD8F8GEX5GL82H6Q0L2V/Picture1.png Blogs - Ireland's energy trilemmas Figure 9: Irish Transport in 2018. (Source: CSO) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1596833061715-AKFV0XIIM5BZAC4XVEVZ/Picture1.png Blogs - Ireland's energy trilemmas Figure 3: GHG emissions from primary energy uses in Ireland. (Source: SEAI). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1597082028999-DGH71KURA50Z9L1KP1I9/Picture1.png Blogs - Ireland's energy trilemmas Figure 8: Natural gas consumption history and generation (data from IEA) and projections (from Gas Networks Ireland, IOOA and Capriole Energy). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1597012301196-HD3YATW4HCTV2XA6CZL7/Picture1.png Blogs - Ireland's energy trilemmas Figure 7: Final energy demand in Irish dwellings. Note that the total residential energy by year includes electricity to lights and aplliances, unlike Figure 6. (Source: Data: SEAI; Graphic: Capriole Energy). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1596987743557-733IAPSD7W83CY2UXRIQ/Picture1.png Blogs - Ireland's energy trilemmas Figure 5: Energy prices in Ireland for domestic and commercial customers (Source SEAI). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1597091265406-YNA67H1BFPTO2E09L0F2/Picture1.png Blogs - Ireland's energy trilemmas Figure 10: Circa 2011 road map for EVs on Irish roads. Note that the total passenger car stock is missing two zeros, top value should be 3,500,000 not 35,000 (Source: SEAI). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1596925257514-G6B6I16K7A8UH07BRJN7/Picture1.png Blogs - Ireland's energy trilemmas Figure 4: Historical electricity generation by fuel type and projection until 2030. (Source: Data: SEAI, EIRGRID; Graphic: Capriole Energy) https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/2020/7/16/can-geothermal-play-a-role-in-irelands-transition-to-clean-and-cheap-energy monthly 0.5 2021-02-15 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1595364476698-HJ3ZSXVWCH605TXOEV6S/Picture1.png Blogs - Can geothermal play a role in Ireland's transition to clean and cheap energy? Figure 12: Renewable installed capacities projection for ROI and Dispatcheable baseload capacity for the island of Ireland. (Source: All-Island Generation Capacity Statement 2019-2028, SONI & EIRGRID). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1595262336341-23N18B1E3NHNROS7TYEO/f1big-2.gif Blogs - Can geothermal play a role in Ireland's transition to clean and cheap energy? Figure 8: Simplified outline of how ORC-Binary power plants work. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1594996335008-2AHFWMKTJ2A6TK4VBXQC/Picture1.png Blogs - Can geothermal play a role in Ireland's transition to clean and cheap energy? Figure 1: Electricity generation by fuel type, ROI, 2005 to 2018 (Data source: SEAI). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1595191522150-50PTPRJS8F8SYRMEU1E9/Picture1.png Blogs - Can geothermal play a role in Ireland's transition to clean and cheap energy? Figure 5: Shallow geothermal energy and heat pumps (Source: Geological Survey of Ireland) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1595270132549-56O9188FBUPI2ZC6H7EZ/Eavor-loop-%402x.png Blogs - Can geothermal play a role in Ireland's transition to clean and cheap energy? Figure 10: The Eavor Loop systems of co-joined laterals. (Source: Eavor). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1595112541677-1N3Q2ADKAAOHEA4HNAHE/image-asset.png Blogs - Can geothermal play a role in Ireland's transition to clean and cheap energy? Figure 3: Sources and uses of energy in Irish homes, 2017 (Source SEAI). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1594996579520-6L74TFJ0GTQ7OWX4Y02W/chart-11.png Blogs - Can geothermal play a role in Ireland's transition to clean and cheap energy? Figure 2: Detail of electricity generation of electricity (ROI) in 2018 (Source: SEAI). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1595545173057-I4BZKLC33FZPIXI3V6PU/Picture1.png Blogs - Can geothermal play a role in Ireland's transition to clean and cheap energy? Endpiece: A few possible locations (of many) for future geothermal power plants in Ireland. Clockwise from the top left: Edenderry power station marked E on map), Kilroot power station (K), Moneypoint power station (M), and Raheen Business Park (R, a microgrid/DSU option). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1594940832279-XQVI3EREKD6NGZ5CV8KW/20170816-img_0707-edit170816.jpg Blogs - Can geothermal play a role in Ireland's transition to clean and cheap energy? Frontispiece: The Spa House in Mallow, Co Cork, Ireland, built in 1828 in an area of warm springs and holy wells. The Mallow Springs, a 20 °C water spring, is one of many that straddle a zone running southwest, from Co Kerry to the northeast, Co Dublin. The town of Mallow became a spring waters town to visit for medicinal and spiritual reasons in the early 19th Century. The springs are typically hosted in Carboniferous limestone, but the trend overlies the more ancient Iapetus Suture Zone, a crustal boundary formed by the closure of a 500 million-year-old proto-Atlantic ocean. (Picture: Holy Wells of Cork and Kerry). This 19th-century use of geothermal energy could be a forebearer of a geo-energy revolution in Ireland and other low-enthalpy countries around the world. Shallow geothermal energy can be amplified by ground- and water-sourced heat pumps to warm and cool buildings and represents a huge opportunity to substitute for more expensive and/or more carbon-intensive fuels. ORC-Binary generators and closed-loop geothermal well technologies appear to be ready to catalyze the development of deeper geothermal resources, previously regarded as not hot enough and not permeable (productive) enough to be used for electricity generation. A coalition of academic research, government policy business, funded by government and private equity, can make this revolution happen. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1595881943260-06YQJISEPUN94AUZADOA/Geo-City-85x11.ngsversion.1524589205921.adapt.1900.1.jpg Blogs - Can geothermal play a role in Ireland's transition to clean and cheap energy? Figure 13: A geo-solar city. Not shown is supplemental heat from deeper sources. (Source: National Geographic). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1595270876036-X5WBV2JU1A4U10R9AL3D/Picture1.png Blogs - Can geothermal play a role in Ireland's transition to clean and cheap energy? Figure 4: Costs ranges (orange bars) and emissions (blue dots) for fuels in residential space heating. Note for Air and Ground Source Heat Pumps I have assumed a Coefficient of Performance (CoP) of 3.5 and 5, respectively, and for Solar Thermal I have assumed 60% of the heat for an average dwelling and a lifetime cost of €10,000 amortized over 20 years. (Source: Data: SEAI; Graphic: Capriole Energy). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1595268348331-IXYL3NKMD1V99G6306MU/GreenFireEnergy_ECO2G_infographic-1024x494.jpg Blogs - Can geothermal play a role in Ireland's transition to clean and cheap energy? Figure 9: Greenfire’s ECO2G™ system compared to a conventional hydrothermal system. The ECO2G™ uses production well(s) to circulate supercritical CO2 down the to gather heat. Thermosiphon effects case the fluid to circulate back up and the turbine is run with the hot, pressurized sCO2. (Source: Think GeoEnergy). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1595685232184-L0QW83V24AWNNG7P4E3I/Picture1.png Blogs - Can geothermal play a role in Ireland's transition to clean and cheap energy? Figure 11: An outline business plan for the first geothermal power plant in Ireland (Source: Capriole Energy). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1595536699308-AU61T1SUQG4FPP3KHV1Q/Picture1.png Blogs - Can geothermal play a role in Ireland's transition to clean and cheap energy? Figure 7: Modeled temperature at 2,500 m depth (from Goodman et al., 2004). Target areas refer to the prospects analyzed during the IRETHERM project. The map also locates some of the larger electricity generation power stations in Ireland. https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/2020/6/24/america-needs-a-sustainable-energy-policy-for-future-prosperity monthly 0.5 2020-07-14 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1593034713916-4FPANG669F6G9563012U/back-to-the-future-delorean.jpg Blogs - America needs a new energy policy to secure future, sustainable prosperity, now https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1594414879780-52XGASA3SU5CT4YSOYMV/Picture1.png Blogs - America needs a new energy policy to secure future, sustainable prosperity, now Figure 11: Apple Mobility data on Driving in the USA benchmarked to January 13th 2020. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1594505297674-LESJBO658M8U5JYV29WR/Picture1.png Blogs - America needs a new energy policy to secure future, sustainable prosperity, now Figure 5: Post-COVID-19 rebound of petroleum consumption and fuel type in 2020 compared to 2019. (Source: Data: EIA; Graphics: Capriole Energy) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1594161151444-FPPM2QS1WN91GOG2C0K7/Picture1.png Blogs - America needs a new energy policy to secure future, sustainable prosperity, now Figure 8: The Goldilocks zone for US oil price. Monthly oil prices are plotted against average monthly gasoline prices. (Source: EIA, Yahoo Finance, Capriole Energy). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1594159319200-GAYGX3VIA9ZD9SNZ7YUY/Picture1.png Blogs - America needs a new energy policy to secure future, sustainable prosperity, now Figure 7: Projected US oil demand compared to sources of reserves (2019) and estimated fiscal breakeven prices for those resources (Source: bp Statistical Review of World Energy 2020 and various for breakeven prices; Graphic: Capriole Energy). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1594333698026-THMKILERCK7H4QA4102T/Picture1.png Blogs - America needs a new energy policy to secure future, sustainable prosperity, now Figure 10: Petroleum products, specifically gasoline and diesel, consumed in the US, 1990 to 2020. (Source: EIA, Capriole Energy). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1594140283781-P4TNJKEJCKM7CBTMGCJM/Picture1.png Blogs - America needs a new energy policy to secure future, sustainable prosperity, now Figure 3: Energy Consumption per Capita in 2019 (Source: Data: bp Statistical Review of World Energy 2020; Graphic: Capriole Energy) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1594139734103-A4UUURZEPV5H93DUUJA3/Picture1.png Blogs - America needs a new energy policy to secure future, sustainable prosperity, now Figure 2: US jobs, petroleum consumption and the stock market are back to within 10% of the pre-shutdown levels. (Source: Data: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, EIA, Yahoo Finance and Apple Mobility; Graphic: Capriole Energy). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1594140913145-Q1093FLG6UKGP10BAYHF/Picture1.png Blogs - America needs a new energy policy to secure future, sustainable prosperity, now Figure 4: US petroleum consumption of petroleum products refined from a barrel of oil (Source: EIA). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1594500393293-PQCJI9XE8BRATJBYRJDV/Picture1.png Blogs - America needs a new energy policy to secure future, sustainable prosperity, now Figure 1: Production, consumption, net imports, import source and price of oil in the United States. (Source: EIA, Yahoo Finance, Capriole Energy). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1594331828499-WYSXM1GRB2CQ01UTLWW0/Picture1.png Blogs - America needs a new energy policy to secure future, sustainable prosperity, now Figure 9: Vehicle miles in the US 1990 to 2018. (Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Capriole Energy). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1594143698573-GZ9FX85FDYNFC83W9JP6/Picture1.png Blogs - America needs a new energy policy to secure future, sustainable prosperity, now Figure 6: Three models of projected oil consumption in the United States. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1594500558306-N2IV9T2ZXYJXD0QVM1MW/Picture1.png Blogs - America needs a new energy policy to secure future, sustainable prosperity, now Figure 12: Production Share and Fuel Economy by Vehicle Type in the US (Source EPA https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1594593593160-K3WURH09UP133LJQLHMK/Picture1.png Blogs - America needs a new energy policy to secure future, sustainable prosperity, now Figure 12: A thought experiment assuming a decline then gradual build of highway miles in the US. These miles are increasing driven in electrified vehicles to reach 42% in 2050, with electricity needed calculated as 35kWh/100 miles and then correlated to the amount of natural gas needed to generate that electricity. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1594667045570-AD579KZJ6Q02MY3ROCAJ/Picture1.png Blogs - America needs a new energy policy to secure future, sustainable prosperity, now Figure 12: Electricity generation in the US by fuel source. (Source: EIA, Capriole Energy). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1594498609968-6HNGCM9SDR2LYNX8C3OD/Picture1.png Blogs - America needs a new energy policy to secure future, sustainable prosperity, now Figure 13: Changes in Estimated Real-World Fuel Economy and CO2 for Large Manufacturers (Source: EPA). https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/2020/6/29/shale-bank-a-business-model-and-plan-to-optimize-recovery-from-bankrupt-eampp-assets monthly 0.5 2020-06-29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1593440682485-L8JZZ8E6J3CL82NRLI6T/Picture1.png Blogs - Shale Bank: a business model and plan to optimize recovery from bankrupt US E&P assets Figure 1: Outline of the governance model for Shale Bank. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1593440023240-GNYLH5OU3VU542MX94E8/broccoli-cheddar-omelet-930x550.jpg Blogs - Shale Bank: a business model and plan to optimize recovery from bankrupt US E&P assets Frontispiece: It feels inevitable to some industry observers that the bankruptcies of companies like Whiting and Chesapeake will only result the same old cycle of Chapter 22s. https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/2020/4/20/qt22aqcei7jqbyb7nnhci6xugx961v monthly 0.5 2020-06-23 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1592344884323-FL6PXYUQQMDZV8AOXB0E/Picture1.png Blogs - Caught in a trap: most US E&Ps are burdened in debt, unable to generate free cash and replace decline, even at “normal” oil prices Figure 3: Cumulative 2019 production (MMboed) of US E&Ps against Profit before tax and EBITDA. (Source: Data: SEC Filings; Graphic: Capriole Energy). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1592223395945-TLWC5K1F8TOGD7AWVW5N/image-skybound-walking-dead-kirkman.png Blogs - Caught in a trap: most US E&Ps are burdened in debt, unable to generate free cash and replace decline, even at “normal” oil prices Frontispiece: Soulless, empty, and purposeless, starved of fresh investment because of lack of free cash and profitability at anything less than $50/bo oil price, burdened by debt and devaluing assets, many US E&Ps are the Walking Dead. Image source: Skybound. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1592593289173-1LI4S425V7HC8TFL3D2N/Picture1.png Blogs - Caught in a trap: most US E&Ps are burdened in debt, unable to generate free cash and replace decline, even at “normal” oil prices Figure 9: Capex/Cash from Operations virus 2018-2019 production growth (Source: SEC Filings and Capriole Energy) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1592682527805-UNY4AHJPKIC9XYV120L7/Picture1.png Blogs - Caught in a trap: most US E&Ps are burdened in debt, unable to generate free cash and replace decline, even at “normal” oil prices Figure 10: Six examples of value destruction in US E&Ps, each company outspending (through borrowing) its operating cash flow to drill more wells to maintain or grow production (and EBITDA) (Source; Yahoo Finance and Capriole Energy) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1592348194800-VZK6A5W0A71EHNM4RAP0/Picture1.png Blogs - Caught in a trap: most US E&Ps are burdened in debt, unable to generate free cash and replace decline, even at “normal” oil prices Figure 4: PBIT per BOE versus ROCE for the 36 companies in 2019. The right hand panel details to subset boxed in the left hand panel. Bubble size is scaled to annual production. (Source: Data: SEC Filing; Graphic: Capriole Energy). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1592433595497-AC997112TYTEUXFKDCZF/Picture1.png Blogs - Caught in a trap: most US E&Ps are burdened in debt, unable to generate free cash and replace decline, even at “normal” oil prices Figure 5: Pre-Tax profit/loss structure per BOE in 2019. (Source: SEC Filings, Capriole Energy) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1592774480441-ED07IU892WQ5HEE8T2J8/Picture1.png Blogs - Caught in a trap: most US E&Ps are burdened in debt, unable to generate free cash and replace decline, even at “normal” oil prices Figure 12: Breakeven oil prices for new wells (Source: Dallas Fed Energy Survey). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1592688614209-CEUNJUJ44XB1ICR5GKB8/Picture1.png Blogs - Caught in a trap: most US E&Ps are burdened in debt, unable to generate free cash and replace decline, even at “normal” oil prices Figure 11: The US E&P industry was in a “death spiral” already, the oil price crash in March 2020 was simply the Wile E Coyote moment when a narrow precipice turned into thin air. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1592225184955-FXX6SY5ZKASK877NS06R/Picture1.png Blogs - Caught in a trap: most US E&Ps are burdened in debt, unable to generate free cash and replace decline, even at “normal” oil prices Figure 1: Bankruptcy trends in the US oil patch. (Source: Data: Haynes & Boone, LLP; Graphic: Capriole Energy). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1592336926590-VYB5Q8KGVQ44KKVJYW1I/Picture2.png Blogs - Caught in a trap: most US E&Ps are burdened in debt, unable to generate free cash and replace decline, even at “normal” oil prices Figure 2: Debt burden of 36 E&P companies assessed in this study. (Source: SEC FIlings and Capriole Energy). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1592826876146-IKENYKS8VG5UTJNKGVX6/Picture1.png Blogs - Caught in a trap: most US E&Ps are burdened in debt, unable to generate free cash and replace decline, even at “normal” oil prices Figure 7: Weighted average, top quartile and top decile per BOE costs in the analysed group of companies. (Source: SEC Filings and Capriole Energy). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1592518514844-WTUEOYLD1AIK216N05UE/Picture1.png Blogs - Caught in a trap: most US E&Ps are burdened in debt, unable to generate free cash and replace decline, even at “normal” oil prices Figure 8: Gearing and Interest Cover for the 36 E&Ps in 2019. (Source: SEC Filings and Capriole Energy) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1592830991824-WC2I7XZ4PNC82MERV1H6/Picture1.png Blogs - Caught in a trap: most US E&Ps are burdened in debt, unable to generate free cash and replace decline, even at “normal” oil prices Table 1: Conceptual model of an E&P company replacing 100% of its base decline in a variety of scenarios. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1592434353348-9A8TJWMWL8CJKLZE3D7U/Picture1.png Blogs - Caught in a trap: most US E&Ps are burdened in debt, unable to generate free cash and replace decline, even at “normal” oil prices Figure 6: Cost categories versus percentage of total production in 2019. https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/2020/4/5/whiting-petroleum-corporation-a-case-study-in-the-failure-of-shale-oil-economics monthly 0.5 2020-06-23 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1586115934330-QICRE4S6B9KG0802KLQ2/Picture1.png Blogs - Whiting Petroleum Corporation: a case study in the failure of shale oil economics Figure 3: Cash flow 2007-2019. (Source: Data: Yahoo Finance; Graphic: Capriole Energy) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1586122840530-0FL7R619Q9NV10YYTNDV/Picture1.png Blogs - Whiting Petroleum Corporation: a case study in the failure of shale oil economics Figure 4: Balance sheet fundamentals for Whiting, 2007-2019. (Source: Data: Yahoo Finane; Graphic: Capriole Energy) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1586368505653-PLPWBH26XZSD85FX6XVB/Picture1.png Blogs - Whiting Petroleum Corporation: a case study in the failure of shale oil economics Figure 14: Production for the Bakken play (all operators) in the Williston Basin and the escalation of gas production in 2014. (Source: Data: DrillingInfo; Graphic: Capriole Energy). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1586987369029-TQ9TX0TWQ4ZVXRJ1AUMC/Picture1.png Blogs - Whiting Petroleum Corporation: a case study in the failure of shale oil economics Figure 20: A very simple financial model for the future depletion of Whiting’s production and reserves with no further capital deployment, for three oil price sensitivities. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1586543736286-F02VB9ZQOS2P5OA2FN6R/Picture1.png Blogs - Whiting Petroleum Corporation: a case study in the failure of shale oil economics Figure 15: Comparison of costs/boe (6:1) of 2008 and 2016 financial performance (Source: Data: Annual reports: Graphic: Capriole Energy). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1586532873711-B9NDWJE81830E1IHGN0G/Picture1.png Blogs - Whiting Petroleum Corporation: a case study in the failure of shale oil economics Figure 16: Comparison of well productivity year by year for Whiting operated wells. (Source: Data: DrillingInfo; Graphic: Capriole Energy). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1586103157555-IFQQXJR8GRCDJK8AZIU5/Picture1.png Blogs - Whiting Petroleum Corporation: a case study in the failure of shale oil economics Figure 1: The rise and fall of Whiting Petroleum Corporation. (Source: Data: EIA and Yahoo Finance; Graphic: Capriole Energy) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1586110729778-VPR6LAASZYWE7AUXTNRC/Picture1.png Blogs - Whiting Petroleum Corporation: a case study in the failure of shale oil economics Figure 2: Financial performance from 2007 to 2019. (Source: Data: Yahoo Finance; Graphic Capriole Energy) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1586190991147-3JSKUY502VVYPFRWRMT4/Picture1.png Blogs - Whiting Petroleum Corporation: a case study in the failure of shale oil economics Figure 7: Performance comparison of parent development well Liffrig 11-27H with neighboring child infill well McNammarra 42-16H, completed 12 months later. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1586180994764-RTEAGG0BYCM95YZPZQOH/Picture1.png Blogs - Whiting Petroleum Corporation: a case study in the failure of shale oil economics Figure 6: Simplied well economics for the 2008 type curve, Sanish Field, Mountrail County. Wellhead costs includes $5.5m Capex and $6000/month opex (Whiting’s average Lease Operating Expenses (LOE) per bo in 2008). Fully loaded cost adds $4.5m additional capital for upfront costs (e.g leasing) and surface facilities and is approximated from Whiting’s total Capex versus the number of wells completed) and $10,000 per month opex which adds $4000 per month for G&A, interest, exploration and other expenses. (Source: Data: DrillingInfo, WLL Annual Reports; Graphic: Capriole Energy). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1586195303426-ZJMI2SXUPPLBUA6QQ5VD/Picture1.png Blogs - Whiting Petroleum Corporation: a case study in the failure of shale oil economics Figure 8: Early performance data for 2007-2009 Whiting operated wells in Mountrail County. (Source: Data: DrillingInfo; Graphic: Capriole Energy). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1586206185461-KTU0LX6IJHPT2KAH7MN1/Picture1.png Blogs - Whiting Petroleum Corporation: a case study in the failure of shale oil economics Figure 10: Comparing type curve well performance, completion count and relative production contribution of the three Whiting reservoir targets in Mountrail County. (Source: Data: DrillingInfo; Graphics: Capriole Energy) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1586815424564-83NVOXZJ7Q9LUP7TVK4A/Picture1.png Blogs - Whiting Petroleum Corporation: a case study in the failure of shale oil economics Figure 12: Whiting type well performance by year in the Williston Basin. Note that the 2008 cumulative type curve, whether expressed as 6:1 or 20:1 MScf:boe for gas, has never been bettered, nor likely never will by subsequent years. (Source: Data: DrillingInfo; Graphic: Capriole Energy). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1587399985573-FC8RRFRU06X5306CIP51/Picture1.png Blogs - Whiting Petroleum Corporation: a case study in the failure of shale oil economics Frontispiece: That dog don’t hunt. Whiting Petroleum Corporation’s performance in the last decade is a poster child for how shale oil companies struggle to make returns for shareholders at intermediate oil prices, let alone bottom dollar prices as today. Instead, most have waged a destructive war on value, with no return to shareholders. How and why did this happen? Were management and the Board awake to the fundamental issues? https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1586126589517-KP8Q7FVS51U2V5JR1QWZ/Picture1.png Blogs - Whiting Petroleum Corporation: a case study in the failure of shale oil economics Figure 5: Year by year drilling out of Sanish area acreage and resulting type curve well performance in Mountrail County, ND. (Source: map and data from DrillingInfo; Graphic: Capriole Energy) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1586364624453-MVT0D3IL9CYS3KUWKUE6/image-asset.png Blogs - Whiting Petroleum Corporation: a case study in the failure of shale oil economics Figure 13. The story of a parent and two children. The upper panel shows the production history of well drilled and completed in Mountrail County in 2008, while the lower two panels show wells drilled between 400 and 600’ from the first well in 2013 and 2014. The infill or child wells have proportionately greater gas production, diminishing oil recovery compared to the parent. Moreover, the parent’s gas:oil ratio also goes up because of the enhanced pressure depletion affected by the children. (Source: Data: DrillingInfo; Graphic: Capriole Energy) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1586206846262-EJVFFTC4LG0DLTWFPDUE/Picture1.png Blogs - Whiting Petroleum Corporation: a case study in the failure of shale oil economics Figure 11: Well economics for the Three Forks type curve, using same cost data as Figure 6. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1586195761207-KELV5I55B28OG9LSEPDZ/Picture1.png Blogs - Whiting Petroleum Corporation: a case study in the failure of shale oil economics Figure 9: Revised economics in Figure 6 using same cost assumptions, but 2009 type curve. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1586533273841-V5JDOU0GZZYD84P39O32/Picture1.png Blogs - Whiting Petroleum Corporation: a case study in the failure of shale oil economics Figure 17: Whiting’s gross operated production in the Williston Basin (Source: Data: DrillingInfo; Graphic: Capriole Energy). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1586544388455-C3Y09DM3TA5KMU8ZOWF1/Picture1.png Blogs - Whiting Petroleum Corporation: a case study in the failure of shale oil economics Figure 18: Per boe financial performance in 2019. (Source; Data: WLL Annual Report; Graphic: Capriole Energy). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1587067587579-N7WTWOUSYNBN3YUUPEWM/Picture1.png Blogs - Whiting Petroleum Corporation: a case study in the failure of shale oil economics Figure 19: Whiting Board and Executive Remuneration, and the proportion of the latter expressed as a percentage proportion of the company’s General & Administrative (G&A) overhead. (Source: Annual Reports and Proxy Statements; Graphic: Capriole Energy). https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/2020/3/25/five-brutal-facts-the-us-oil-industry-must-confront-to-get-ready-for-the-post-coronavirus-world monthly 0.5 2020-04-18 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1585668683461-9ENTUOUPJVHCGG3Y39L5/330973-14175725496064508-Brad-Thomas_origin.jpg Blogs - Five brutal facts the US oil industry and energy policy makers must confront now to get ready for the post-coronavirus world Frontispiece: US Shale oil doesn’t work at $50/bo oil price, it’s dead in the water at $25. One of five brutal facts the US oil industry needs to confront. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1585484078429-WFNPK1JHHHU7JXHUYPXB/Picture1.png Blogs - Five brutal facts the US oil industry and energy policy makers must confront now to get ready for the post-coronavirus world Figure 7. Oil prices, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent. (Source: Data: EIA, Graphic: Capriole Energy) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1585261373998-IN64IVTJ239MC6QND35W/Picture1.png Blogs - Five brutal facts the US oil industry and energy policy makers must confront now to get ready for the post-coronavirus world Figure 1: Total Annual Net Income and Free Cash Flow for 36 studied shale oil companies in the decade 2010-2019. (Source: Data: Yahoo Finance, EIA; Graphic: Capriole Energy). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1585263471642-IJA6HSMF08HW1XL1XSRE/Picture1.png Blogs - Five brutal facts the US oil industry and energy policy makers must confront now to get ready for the post-coronavirus world Figure 2: An approximation of the “creaming curve” for US production potential versus full cycle breakeven cost (Source: Capriole Energy). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1585337489836-U8PFNVNOG2UL5276U8ZR/Picture1.png Blogs - Five brutal facts the US oil industry and energy policy makers must confront now to get ready for the post-coronavirus world Figure 3: US Oil Reserves and Production in the last decade. RRR is Reserves Replacement Ratio which is the reserves added divided by the production in that year. (Source: Data: EIA; Graphic: Capriole Energy). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1585489810311-MY7BCXOVRT77QG9BXFXM/media.caspianmedia.comimage0770d06fa05aa72b7d00817f5b03a896-25ed95d0d15abc88e3b475b65ce7ea50b44d75af-1024x746.jpg Blogs - Five brutal facts the US oil industry and energy policy makers must confront now to get ready for the post-coronavirus world Figure 6: The man himself. Apparently he didn’t say “never waste a good crisis” and Rahm Emanuel, Chief of Staff to President Obama and later mayor of Chicago, gets the credit for that adage. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1585339468769-3EC8KAAUBFU1694GJAGK/Picture1.png Blogs - Five brutal facts the US oil industry and energy policy makers must confront now to get ready for the post-coronavirus world Figure 4: December 2019 balance of oil and petroleum products production, export, import and consumption (Source: Data: EIA; Graphic: Capriole Energy). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1585678091120-WHMNZEWY7D5OK50XDBMO/08703ab01d0a041095e13630d58ebf66.jpg Blogs - Five brutal facts the US oil industry and energy policy makers must confront now to get ready for the post-coronavirus world Figure 9: The U.S. shale industry responds only to oil price signals and is like “a market without brain”, BP’s ex-chief executive Bob Dudley said in February 2019. Not only does the shale oil industry need a brain, but it needs a joined up approach with the rest of American industry with the purpose of delivering an affordable sustainable, secure and stable US economy for the future. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1585488460113-B79AP4EGH51P0WLPD2C6/china-trop-2020056.png Blogs - Five brutal facts the US oil industry and energy policy makers must confront now to get ready for the post-coronavirus world Figure 5: Before and after; the pollution reducing effects of the coronavirus lockdown in China (Source: CBS News) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1585677731528-O1T1EPTF5BG2XQ72CVLL/Picture1.png Blogs - Five brutal facts the US oil industry and energy policy makers must confront now to get ready for the post-coronavirus world Figure 8: Consumption of petroleum products in the past, and one forecast of the future (Historical data from EIA: Graphic: Capriole Energy). https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/2020/3/21/now-is-the-time-to-transform-americas-energy-trajectory-from-waste-and-value-destruction-to-sustainability-and-security monthly 0.5 2020-03-22 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1584830640454-C3NBDLQ753KE43D2YTXZ/comp_3_v_l.jpg Blogs - It’s time to transform America's energy trajectory from waste and value destruction to sustainability and security Frontispiece: America’s energy transition is transformational and needs to start now in this time of crisis. “Black box” thinking and leadership is required to not only deal with the current challenges, but find new solutions, strategies and policies to provide for a more sustainable energy economy. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1584889943443-CLUWB3FBT7RGDT5LI1EW/Picture1.png Blogs - It’s time to transform America's energy trajectory from waste and value destruction to sustainability and security Figure 1: Growth in US crude production in the last decade, including gross operated production from 36 US Shale companies in analysis (Data: EIA, DrillingInfo; Graphic: Capriole Energy) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1584890064124-ST59E2QU902S27H7XZ9G/Picture1.png Blogs - It’s time to transform America's energy trajectory from waste and value destruction to sustainability and security Figure 2: A decade of waste and value destruction. (Data: Yahoo Finance; Graphic: Capriole Energy) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1584889721059-H8RIB0HEU24LOIQ2NPKO/Picture1.png Blogs - It’s time to transform America's energy trajectory from waste and value destruction to sustainability and security Figure 3: Only a handful of companies have delivered any kind of financial performance in the last decade and deserve to be around in this decade. (Data: Yahoo Finance; Graphics: Capriole Energy) https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/2020/2/22/oil-field-service-sector-leaders-and-laggards-in-response-to-the-energy-transition monthly 0.5 2020-02-24 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1582550033782-F8G8J4MS4QJN376YVVTR/Picture1.png Blogs - Variable response to climate change risk by the oil field service sector Table: An index of responsiveness to climate-change risks (Source: Capriole Energy) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1582549553606-5TPRJ7EABZ5TF01TUCSI/project-hywind-tech-challenges.jpg Blogs - Variable response to climate change risk by the oil field service sector Frontispiece: Saipem 7000 at the Hywind WInd Farm. (Source: Saipem) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1582550192800-KE1LVDLAPC4YGGR1P6NU/Picture1.png Blogs - Variable response to climate change risk by the oil field service sector Figure 1: Appraisal of Climate Risk Responsiveness (Source: Plan C Advisors and Capriole Energy) https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/2019/12/14/irelands-leadership-of-the-energy-transition monthly 0.5 2020-03-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1580745687747-OZ0DZMHSR63NGA8O2GD1/IllustrationStorengy2030-A3-Geothermie-Anglais-RRRF_0.jpg Blogs - Ireland: an Island of Energy in Transition Figure 8: A vision for geothermal energy in 2020 (Source: Storengy) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1577727237282-T6YTQ1O4K4Z3M9R2OYUE/image.jpg Blogs - Ireland: an Island of Energy in Transition Frontispiece: Rugby Union is one of several sports in which Ireland competes as an island, not separately as Northern Ireland (NI) and the Republic of Ireland (ROI). Climate change and the energy transition are challenges best faced by a unified island of Ireland approach. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1580548333325-QYWCROYMHBOOE0RDKDQG/battery-kilathmoy.png Blogs - Ireland: an Island of Energy in Transition Figure 6: Statkraft Ireland staff and management onsite at the 11-megawatt Kilathmoy battery project. (Source: Statkraft) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1580045319106-L06KS31LYHZY3J244BA1/Moneypoint-power-station.jpg Blogs - Ireland: an Island of Energy in Transition Figure 4: The Moneypoint Power Station, Co Clare - Ireland’s last remaining coal-fired generation and recently written down in the balance sheet of its owner, ESB. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1576437892266-561LCI8O0NLJ8JI8RIJW/Screen+Shot+2019-12-14+at+4.08.17+PM.png Blogs - Ireland: an Island of Energy in Transition Figure 2: Energy balance for Ireland in 2017. (Source: SEAI) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1580810284590-06UBJF59KI44IKW09GVU/chart-7.png Blogs - Ireland: an Island of Energy in Transition Figure 9: Final energy by mode of transport. (Source: SEAI) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1580631087564-AJQFHRUAH0O7B8MBX21L/Passive-House-Premium-South-West-College-Campus-Enniskillen.jpg Blogs - Ireland: an Island of Energy in Transition Figure 7: With construction works due to commence in March 2018 and expected to be completed in January 2020, South West College (Enniskillen) will be developing the first educational non-domestic building to be built according to the Passive House Premium Standard in the world. This £24.6 million investment will create a modern 8,200 square metre college, filled with cutting-edge technology, hosting 7000 students and 200 employees. (Source: Passive House Association of Ireland) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1579972498526-CN8VX90O2I5LNTVIYNE9/Screen+Shot+2020-01-25+at+4.21.06+PM.png Blogs - Ireland: an Island of Energy in Transition Figure 1: ROI’s GHG emissions picture by sector. NI’s carbon budget is about 20 million tonnes CO2e, with a similar proportion division (Source: EPA). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1580035719128-6I91C4CM06LHP1CQJYWH/chart-5.png Blogs - Ireland: an Island of Energy in Transition Figure 3: Energy flow in electricity generation, 2018, ROI. (Source: SEAI) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1580824861197-8UWUWBCPLNH2DLSLXMSC/Picture1.png Blogs - Ireland: an Island of Energy in Transition Figure 10: Framework for the progressing the energy transition. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1580050317608-K5CRAX0N0CIRU715J3V5/image-asset.png Blogs - Ireland: an Island of Energy in Transition Figure 5: Lazard Levelized Cost of Energy 2019 Review. (Source: Lazard) https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/2020/1/9/diamondback-energy-how-about-a-virtuous-cycle-instead-of-a-death-spiral monthly 0.5 2020-03-23 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1578692171582-6QL7SDQRYCIRAPLK0CYC/Picture1.png Blogs - Can shale companies pay back investors? Figure 3: Production per completion performance for Diamondback wells. (Source: ShalePro) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1579092178275-C3OPECVNBTIO38X2341X/Picture1.png Blogs - Can shale companies pay back investors? Figure 8: Sources & Uses of Cash in 2020 in Alternative Strategy bB https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1578663849374-0GMP3D0F2KTYAM8KDRBM/Picture1.png Blogs - Can shale companies pay back investors? Figure 1: Diamondback’s phenomenal growth story. (Source: Data - DrillingInfo, Diamondback Investor Presentation and Yahoo France; Graphics - Capriole Energy). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1579092040498-DA5VN4YDSDWQVXKS51L0/Picture1.png Blogs - Can shale companies pay back investors? Figure 7: Sources & Uses of Cash in 2020 in Alternative Strategy A https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1579042065042-0DOJOW2AJOERZATHCWEI/Picture1.png Blogs - Can shale companies pay back investors? Figure 5: Sources and uses of cash in 2019. Sources: SEC filings, company guidance, some extrapolation by Capriole Energy) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1579042721357-87ICVPKYFWHLRDRC10GU/image-asset.png Blogs - Can shale companies pay back investors? Figure 6: 2020 guidance for a $55/bo price regime. (Source: Data - Diamondback presentation, graphic- Capriole Energy) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1578695243160-69M5VVG366ESCYX6C41V/Picture1.png Blogs - Can shale companies pay back investors? Figure 4: Growth and Performance Trends in Lease Operating Expenses. (Source: Data - SEC Filings, DrillingInfo; Graphic - Capriole Energy) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1578693201499-2HOFR6OG9MY9JFF21OQI/Picture1.png Blogs - Can shale companies pay back investors? Frontispiece: Roll up, roll up! Diamondback’s share price performance. (Source: Share price data from Yahoo Finance). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1578690325835-GLERVSCAB9NN4D75Q8BR/Picture1.png Blogs - Can shale companies pay back investors? Figure 2. Capital efficiency of gross operated oil production added per quarter. Each quarter’s new production in bod is divided by the gross company capital expenditure for the prior quarter. (Source: Data - DrillingInfo, Yahoo Finance; Graphic - Capriole Energy) https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/2020/1/14/why-record-us-oil-reserves-is-no-reason-for-cheering monthly 0.5 2020-01-14 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1579012436639-A2D0CUO3RFXZ2G2XVOBO/Picture1.png Blogs - Why record US oil reserves is no reason for cheering Reasons to be cheerful? (Source: Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times and EIA) https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/2020/1/11/mounting-pressure-on-eampp-shale-oil-companies-to-deliver-value-and-to-decarbonize-their-own-operations monthly 0.5 2020-01-12 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1578777913225-HM3TROADT0E5O4HGHTB5/jpt_2019_permian_flaring.jpg Blogs - Heads up US shale: Blackrock just joined Climate 100 Frontispiece: Flaring, fuel usage, venting and other sources of GHG emissions in onshore US oil & gas operations emit over 182 million tonnes CO2e per year, more than the combined emissions of a small country like Ireland. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1578785544609-4528EEWZA04X8HMDA43B/Picture1.png Blogs - Heads up US shale: Blackrock just joined Climate 100 Figure 3: Top ten institutional holders of the top 10 equities by market cap. (Source: Data - Yahoo France; Graphic - Capriole Energy). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1578785026893-G259KUUZ9TNBCPT5XH3G/Picture1.png Blogs - Heads up US shale: Blackrock just joined Climate 100 Figure 2: Equity value by Institutional Investor in their top ten holdings (Source: Data - Yahoo Finance; Graphic - Capriole Energy) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1578778843239-RG0VQJ4VRM39EV29H6QX/Picture1.png Blogs - Heads up US shale: Blackrock just joined Climate 100 Figure 1. 30+ US E&P companies with shale in their portfolio. (Source: Data - Yahoo Finance; Graphic - Capriole Energy) https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/2020/1/1/us-energy-independence-from-shale-oil monthly 0.5 2020-02-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1578060571086-YKYEH8RPDK4I5DTJDJDR/Picture1.png Blogs - A New Purpose for US Shale Oil Figure 3: Continental Resource’s production growth, revenue, net income and long term debt over the last decade (Source: Data - Yahoo Finance and DrillingInfo; Graphic - Capriole Energy) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1577901046196-BWBH0G6DT884I7OXFGDE/1920px-Crude_oil_spread.svg.png Blogs - A New Purpose for US Shale Oil Figure 2: WTI-Brent spread and the 2015 lifting of the US export ban. (Source: StefanPohl, updated by Gretarsson - Own work, CC0) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1577978436537-JIJLQU9SE5G3249WQ5RR/220px-Pennyfarthing-1886.jpg Blogs - A New Purpose for US Shale Oil Frontispiece: Keep peddling to avoid crashing. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1577908176964-S33UZWSMUBYNU0N0YKRN/Picture1.png Blogs - A New Purpose for US Shale Oil Figure 1: US crude oil production and consumption since 1990. (Source: Data - EIA; Graphic - Capriole Energy) https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/2019/11/15/the-nature-of-oil-in-the-energy-transition monthly 0.5 2019-12-28 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1577384839228-VO0YHINSZCH3WOG5S77R/Solar_Power_Energy_Oil_Gas_Amal_Oilfield_Oman.jpg Blogs - The Future of Oil Frontispiece: The Miraah Project on the Amal Oil Field in Oman. (Source: Using Solar Energy in Oil & Gas, Jane Whaley). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1577562733499-0X5HOVHN8O6YBEXYFH8A/Picture1.png Blogs - The Future of Oil Figure 6: Selected 2018 oil production and emissions intensity by basin. For Permian, Williston (Bakken), Gulf Coast and San Joaquin the data are for the oil and gas operations for an operator (including reported emissions from gathering and boosting) across the basin area. For the Deep Water Gulf of Mexico (GOM) the 6 selected data are for fields/platforms. (Source: Data - DrillingInfo, GoMSmart and EPA; Graphic - Capriole Energy) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1577198049018-5BU4WXYG9NFJ30XU13XX/Screen+Shot+2019-12-24+at+8.33.18+AM.png Blogs - The Future of Oil Figure 1: World Oil Demand in early 21st century (Source: Peak Oil Demand and Long-Run Oil Prices, Oxford Energy Institute) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1577562876769-9ZXN100YR8TUFTAK6MJS/Picture1.png Blogs - The Future of Oil Figure 5: Major Oil Producing Countries; 2018 production and estimated associated GHG emissions. (Source: Data - BP Statistical Review of World Energy and Global carbon intensity of crude oil production, Science 2018. Graphic - Capriole Energy). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1577199742924-XL3LL34ZVBB9BPVDWZXO/Screen+Shot+2019-12-24+at+9.01.23+AM.png Blogs - The Future of Oil Figure 2: Transport emissions by sector in the IEA’s Sustainable Development scenario (Source: IEA) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1577211699631-SHF30IK8DD1VZLR4I8Z8/Picture1.png Blogs - The Future of Oil Figure 4: Major Oil Producing Countries; 2018 proven reserves and 2015 GHG intensity of production. (Source: Data - BP Statistical Review of World Energy and Global carbon intensity of crude oil production, Science 2018. Graphic - Capriole Energy). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1577209248423-T30BNX9HIB52MD1PNOSM/Screen+Shot+2019-12-24+at+11.40.34+AM.png Blogs - The Future of Oil Figure 3: Supply curve for oil in 2018. (Source: Rystad Energy) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1577459606174-RF66REKXMNC5NUX2WN78/Picture1.png Blogs - The Future of Oil Figure 7: Comparison of GHG intensity performance of two operators in the Permian Basin (Source: as per Figure 6) https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/2019/11/15/we-need-an-eclectic-energy-transition monthly 0.5 2019-12-26 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1573829813549-16XCXNEFQJQZIQOASLVB/Bucuresti%2C_Romania%2C_Str._Atelierului_nr._24%2C_sect._1%3B_B-II-m-B-18014_%28detaliu_4%29.JPG Blogs - We Need an Eclectic Approach to the Energy Transition Detail of an Eclectic house in Bucharest, Romania, a combination between Neoclassical architecture and Romanian Revival. Photo by Britchi Mirela - Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0 ro, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=35319880 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1573917301834-9ZVRU3EFOF7RH3U1H0UB/image-asset.png Blogs - We Need an Eclectic Approach to the Energy Transition The main blocks of intent of the EIB’s Energy Lending Policy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1573828439422-B1M3XF8J9V7J72P581OL/Screen+Shot+2019-11-13+at+7.24.40+AM.png Blogs - We Need an Eclectic Approach to the Energy Transition The three scenarios from the 2019 World Energy Outlook. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1573903419958-IWAZYTQP1X8J63PY81TM/Screen+Shot+2019-11-16+at+5.22.47+AM.png Blogs - We Need an Eclectic Approach to the Energy Transition The plethora of actions needed to deliver a sustainable development of the world (Source: IEA, 2019 WEO) https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/2019/10/18/houston-we-have-a-problem monthly 0.5 2019-10-25 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1571441525359-EDMDJHDYRTLYNPRMJXX6/Figure1-GOM.jpg Blogs - Houston, we have a problem Bathymetry of the Gulf of Mexico from 3D seismic surveys. Source: BOEM https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1571488700265-3BQPWMM1QJRFQF3NFPJ3/8771450_meantrend.png Blogs - Houston, we have a problem https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1571491572042-2V09Q5PA8V9BJXB84UFU/Screen+Shot+2019-10-19+at+8.23.54+AM.png Blogs - Houston, we have a problem The location of flooded buildings relative to demarcated Flood Zones https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1571522199122-DITJY848OQP8MCTVEU4P/48201tracts_metro1.gif Blogs - Houston, we have a problem The Houston metropolitan area and included counties https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1571514231905-CRTPFH6VSMKB2ZP2CGLR/Screen+Shot+2019-10-19+at+2.42.20+PM.png Blogs - Houston, we have a problem A climate change dashboard https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1571499942142-76BS91ZWR93Q0NFIKPUL/ozoneform.gif Blogs - Houston, we have a problem https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1571439859177-FNO4PNUQURGI5P9I7QL0/Geomechanics-around-the-world.gif Blogs - Houston, we have a problem A geologic cross section across the Gulf Coast and Gulf of Mexico https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1571501434472-LP12Y65Q67D0RHAEW2CZ/glacial-interglacial.jpg Blogs - Houston, we have a problem https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/2019/9/27/road-trip-by-ev monthly 0.5 2021-02-02 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1569622601052-REQWLN4FK8KALJ7E60PD/Picture1.png Blogs - Road trip! (by EV) Average state-wide CO2 emitted (g/kWh) in electricity generation in 2016. Multiply by our average efficiency of 0.271 kWh/mile to get a emissions per mile for our Tesla. (Data source: EIA) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1569620121091-P1F265ZI5MCP4B2AD2EL/DHIE1OpUAAEPPGa.jpg Blogs - Road trip! (by EV) The Product Adoption Curve from Innovation Diffusion Theory. Source: crazy egg.com. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1569609889347-T37XHUH3WXVK47M9GZV7/Screen+Shot+2019-09-27+at+1.41.54+PM.png Blogs - Road trip! (by EV) Our road trip route. (Source: personal car data on teslafi.com) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1569619775880-N55X6HCK308Y6WC60GDZ/2gxojdPySzWErvZ22xS6Ag.jpg Blogs - Road trip! (by EV) https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/2019/9/4/us-eampp-independents-transformation-required-to-meet-the-energy-transition-challenge monthly 0.5 2020-02-28 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1567609255326-F117YC0DOWY1P965K4JG/Picture1.png Blogs - US E&P Independents: transformation required to meet the energy transition challenge Figure 1. Profitability versus Leverage. The proxy for profitability is to subtract each companies net income per boe from the average oil price of 2Q 2019. The proxy for leverage is to divide the each company’s long term debt by balance sheet value of assets. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1567611682204-WJ7OTXHJ0DRH0CP2VUMP/Picture1.png Blogs - US E&P Independents: transformation required to meet the energy transition challenge Figure 2: Profitability versus Share of Total Net Production. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1567779426109-RZKESJCG6B8U6HXS20WL/Screen+Shot+2019-09-06+at+8.54.31+AM.png Blogs - US E&P Independents: transformation required to meet the energy transition challenge Figure 5. Oil and Gas Price forecasts for various scenarios to 2050 in the EIA’s 2019 Annual Energy Outlook. Note that oil price is Brent, not WTI, which runs at a $6-$10 lower differential to Brent. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1567778395906-8M1FVZKQ9F32V0SD1XGN/Screen+Shot+2019-09-06+at+8.57.26+AM.png Blogs - US E&P Independents: transformation required to meet the energy transition challenge Figure 4. Diamondback explanation for sources and uses of cash in different oil price scenarios (Source: Diamondback Investor Presentation). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1567637950363-0ERUZY8YHHSZORV3X634/Screen+Shot+2019-09-04+at+5.57.23+PM.png Blogs - US E&P Independents: transformation required to meet the energy transition challenge Figure 3: Stock price performance of the 35 companies in my analysis. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1567798129664-TSLWY5LQYIQ7H9X3RFB6/Screen+Shot+2019-09-06+at+2.26.39+PM.png Blogs - US E&P Independents: transformation required to meet the energy transition challenge Figure 6. EIA’s view of petroleum and other liquids production and consumption in the US. https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/2019/8/2/the-energy-transition-and-culture-change monthly 0.5 2019-11-11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1565106872230-JRDT1XGQAHJE9B1WJ55A/img_6498.jpg Blogs - The Energy Transition is an Adaptive Challenge topgear.com https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1565106490428-Q0ODKIHI1X8HH9MMXUXV/nonconsumption-ford-model-t-1.jpg Blogs - The Energy Transition is an Adaptive Challenge https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1564741701763-BU2FVMZQKAHKQ2OUX51H/Integral-Model.jpg Blogs - The Energy Transition is an Adaptive Challenge From: http://www.evolvingleaders.com.au/integral-model/integral-model/ https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/2019/5/3/the-energy-firm-of-the-future monthly 0.5 2020-02-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1556972647930-DXTPENAL1TM9QY3HA3HZ/Picture1.png Blogs - The Energy Firm of the Future Segments in supply and demand for the Energy Firm of the Future https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/2019/2/5/flaring-in-the-permian-basin-lets-collaborate-to-eliminate monthly 0.5 2019-02-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1549227981347-38I9A47JART4Y6NTL5XF/gallery_xlarge.jpg Blogs - Flaring in the Permian basin: let's collaborate to eliminate https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/2019/1/13/want-us-energy-independence-dont-rely-on-us-shale-oil-independents monthly 0.5 2019-01-15 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1547500794275-NEGWT1O5PSJLZDIZTE4I/Screen+Shot+2019-01-14+at+2.46.43+PM.png Blogs - Want US Energy Independence from shale oil, and cheap gas at the pump? Don't rely on US Oil & Gas Independents. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1547418665746-KCT2OEPABU658T3ASXDH/image-asset.jpeg Blogs - Want US Energy Independence from shale oil, and cheap gas at the pump? Don't rely on US Oil & Gas Independents. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1547498886661-SLIU39LRE6DDI1BGR2XA/Screen+Shot+2019-01-14+at+2.47.37+PM.png Blogs - Want US Energy Independence from shale oil, and cheap gas at the pump? Don't rely on US Oil & Gas Independents. From EOG’s 3Q earnings presentation - not much free cash flow at $50/bo, but plenty “jam” at higher prices. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1547504189518-7IWFN2WZIYEKZ8AHI1WN/Picture1.jpg Blogs - Want US Energy Independence from shale oil, and cheap gas at the pump? Don't rely on US Oil & Gas Independents. Charts illustrating the profit/loss per BOE produced performance of 31 US independent oil and gas companies with significant shale production in their portfolio. The “breakeven” oil price axis in all three charts equilibrates average net income per BOE performance in 1Q to 3Q 2018 of each of the companies with the average WTI oil price of the period to estimate a price at which the companies would have been expected to make a profit. The top left hand chart plots this “breakeven” price against production rate in 3Q 2018, illustrating a handful of higher performers, who can make a profit at $60, but most are unprofitable below $55 (as at the moment). The top right hand chart plots the “breakeven” against production growth report in 2018, with the size of the bubble recording 3Q production volumes. The bottom chart plots “breakeven” against P/E ratio. (Source: Graphics are Capriole Energy, data from SEC filings, Morgan Stanley and Yahoo Finance). https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/2019/1/3/permian-independent-eampps-separating-the-wheat-from-the-chaff monthly 0.5 2019-01-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1546611706795-V7080CY7C3JTBXR6TPEB/Picture1.jpg Blogs - Permian independent E&Ps: separating the wheat from the chaff Left hand chart plots average net income per BOE, 1Q to 3Q 2018 consolidated, for each of 26 companies with Permian and other production against production growth 1Q to 3Q. The size of the bubble is scaled to 3Q production for the company (not only Permian). Right hand chart takes the best profit margin performers in the left hand chart and plots the same net income per BOE but against Debt/Equity Ratio. The size of the bubble is the firm’s P/E ratio. Source: graphics by Capriole, data from company filings and Yahoo Finance. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1546614306431-PLPFU13VA41LPXFED3T4/image-asset.jpeg Blogs - Permian independent E&Ps: separating the wheat from the chaff https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1546556286223-TNVJ6D0S7PWDTFH1XD2Z/Picture1.png Blogs - Permian independent E&Ps: separating the wheat from the chaff Average Net income per barrel for 26 independent E&P companies that have Permian production are part of their portfolio compared to average WTI oil price for the same period. Note how profit margins have remain below $10/BOE even with rising price in 2017 and the first three quarter of 2018. (Source: image Capriole, data from SEC filings). https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/2018/12/29/the-allam-cycle-a-potential-breakthrough-for-the-energy-transition monthly 0.5 2018-12-30 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1546098033660-DTRAV1D5S6QHJY46YJC8/1l-image-191.jpg Blogs - The Allam Cycle - a potential breakthrough in the energy transition A simplified PFD for the new technology. Source: Power Technology https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1546096534971-U06FF2DP9VFOMADXWR0M/edited.jpg Blogs - The Allam Cycle - a potential breakthrough in the energy transition https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/2018/12/17/46-billion-barrels-of-shale-oil-in-the-delaware-basin monthly 0.5 2019-01-03 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1545585632106-Y7NPPXO4HPI7G14ZLASJ/consumption.jpg Blogs - The Permian Basin, American energy independence and return on investment The world’s top ten oil consumers in 2016 (2017 data not yet complete). Units are millions of barrels of oil per day. (Source US EIA). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1545594340342-UMLT2GE7E00FSDG4ZGX3/wo0517-redden-shaletech-permian-fig-04.jpg Blogs - The Permian Basin, American energy independence and return on investment https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1545592513651-33GAGCVV4461GXOZ3W42/permianproducers.jpg Blogs - The Permian Basin, American energy independence and return on investment Gross daily oil production in the Midland and Delaware basins by operator (Source: DrillingInfo). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1545585594522-1X7LY0SPOJCXC3YTUW1K/production.jpg Blogs - The Permian Basin, American energy independence and return on investment The world’s top ten oil producers in 2007 and in 2017. Units are millions of barrels of oil per day. (Source US EIA). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1545592163767-Q0AH1K5CUTRI1F65P8ZA/Screen+Shot+2018-12-23+at+1.09.08+PM.png Blogs - The Permian Basin, American energy independence and return on investment Growth in US shale production. (Source: ShaleProfile) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1546004945929-SHBK6K6OPFN86KHKHJLF/Picture1.jpg Blogs - The Permian Basin, American energy independence and return on investment Recent income performance and key financial metrics of the three top independent producers in the Permian basin. Size of the bubble in the right hand chart is scaled to reported 2018 3Q net production in barrels oil equivalent. (Sources, Company reports, SEC filings and Yahoo Fiance). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1546523656205-SQELEOHU33ZXHL9AQPXM/Picture1.jpg Blogs - The Permian Basin, American energy independence and return on investment 2018 3rd quarter income statement analysis per barrel oil equivalent for top four Permian-only operators. (Source: company SEC filings) https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/2018/12/18/are-hybrid-and-electric-cars-part-of-the-energy-transition monthly 0.5 2018-12-18 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1545144613902-4O3W2XGW3AQC6CG43B1K/Picture1.jpg Blogs - Are hybrid and electric cars part of the energy transition? Comparison of energy and emissions efficiency of transportation versus electrical power generation. In the red shaded states the source electricity for electrification of road transport would be less CO2 efficient than driving a gasoline car. (Sources: EIA, Capriole Energy) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1545145368865-TOZI0T3HHWRG3KYNEU1X/Screen+Shot+2018-12-18+at+8.48.34+AM.png Blogs - Are hybrid and electric cars part of the energy transition? Most prevalent source of fuel for electrical power generation, 2007 and 2017. (Source EIA) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1545146497135-271IPU4W580K7O1SL0AP/636534393984615534MK.jpg Blogs - Are hybrid and electric cars part of the energy transition? https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1545142930114-OZRE8D5DYT1ROD6GL061/Picture1.jpg Blogs - Are hybrid and electric cars part of the energy transition? Percentage proportion of CO2 emissions from transportation by state. (Source: data from EIA) https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/2018/12/13/a-foreshadow-of-the-shale-boom monthly 0.5 2018-12-18 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1544711842696-7NQWQ9F0ETT8PUV5CIDD/logs-Cleaning-sample.jpg Blogs - A foreshadow of the shale boom Source: Continental Laboratories https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/2018/12/9/california-dreaming-is-the-state-senate-bill-100-achievable monthly 0.5 2018-12-29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1544392965356-OG7ZV6N03444Y38L7LZ6/Picture1.png Blogs - California Dreaming: Is the State Senate Bill 100 achievable? Natural gas usage in California during 2017 when a total of 2.11 TCF of gas was consumed. Source: US Energy Information Administration https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1544373172090-826IBV4CK6T3KC0PJSSU/image-asset.jpeg Blogs - California Dreaming: Is the State Senate Bill 100 achievable? https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1544396536936-1A84YRB77639IT2GM4SR/pie_2016_by_sector-2.png Blogs - California Dreaming: Is the State Senate Bill 100 achievable? Emissions by industrial sector in California. (Source: California Air Resources Board) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1544396875695-TSHM7FHH4VGTKBPTB9XV/Screen+Shot+2018-12-09+at+5.07.20+PM.png Blogs - California Dreaming: Is the State Senate Bill 100 achievable? Essential framework for the Acorn CCS Project in Scotland (Source: Pale Blue Dot) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1544396077856-TF3TKQMLDXDB7W1CNR2L/Picture1.png Blogs - California Dreaming: Is the State Senate Bill 100 achievable? Historical usage by fuel source of electricity in California with projected usage, targets from SB100. Sources: Californian Energy Commission, Californian Legislative Information and EIA. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1544379317828-C13U9N0P6OAYBCFACVYQ/Screen+Shot+2018-12-09+at+12.03.13+PM.png Blogs - California Dreaming: Is the State Senate Bill 100 achievable? Historical Levelized Cost of Energy showing the increasing competiveness of Wind and Utility-Scale Solar in the last decade. Source: Lazard’s Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis Version 11.0. https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/energytransitionpart1 monthly 0.5 2018-12-10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1544193258643-MNQUH5N6MYB529ORGFKA/Screen+Shot+2018-12-07+at+8.29.58+AM.png Blogs - Energy transition - the need for cohesive, planned and integral action Source: DNV-GL Energy Transition Outlook 2018 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1544284212737-LEDY2C4U3GYNH91H9FS5/Screen+Shot+2018-12-08+at+9.48.52+AM.png Blogs - Energy transition - the need for cohesive, planned and integral action Lazard’s Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis, Version 11.0 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1544282871664-2KPGM60JDKVDJT33CK06/oil-and-wind-1170x731.jpg Blogs - Energy transition - the need for cohesive, planned and integral action https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1544221904583-AR8YGTNNCI4KAZL99N3X/Screen+Shot+2018-12-07+at+4.30.04+PM.png Blogs - Energy transition - the need for cohesive, planned and integral action Both human and natural factors influence Earth’s climate, but the long-term global warming trend observed over the past century can only be explained by the effect that human activities have had on the climate. (Source: Fourth National Climate Assessment) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1544222667305-252SIED3EN7KVNMF4X2D/Screen+Shot+2018-12-07+at+4.42.58+PM.png Blogs - Energy transition - the need for cohesive, planned and integral action Crude oil supply sources to Californian refineries (Source: California Energy Commission) https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/2018/12/2/senior-leadership-site-safety-visits-four-keys-for-success monthly 0.5 2018-12-09 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1543781989544-LP85M99MMWO56U08TF74/0-12.jpeg Blogs - Senior leadership site safety visits: four keys for success https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/2018/12/2/apaches-permian-basin-strike-a-contrarian-curiosity-underpinned-by-great-science-and-engineering monthly 0.5 2018-12-09 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1543781885129-FFDT2GB35ODZ29JU5W0B/0-11.jpeg Blogs - Apache's Permian basin "strike": a contrarian curiosity underpinned by great science and engineering https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/2018/12/2/the-permian-basin-reloaded monthly 0.5 2018-12-11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1543781679571-Z5SIA1WMRBEQ26PP9LTD/0-9.jpeg Blogs - The Permian Basin Reloaded https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1543781736463-9XXQVS0NJDQPR0YMW1BN/0-10.jpeg Blogs - The Permian Basin Reloaded https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/2018/12/2/back-to-gas-has-the-oil-price-bust-leveled-the-playing-field-for-us-natural-gas-producers monthly 0.5 2018-12-09 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1543781035950-ZAXDS9MWDHD64P7DO75B/0-8.jpeg Blogs - Back to Gas: Has the oil price bust leveled the playing field for US natural gas producers? https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1543780914463-YGNP1WUPHFIJU5QA5MBK/0-5.jpeg Blogs - Back to Gas: Has the oil price bust leveled the playing field for US natural gas producers? https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1543780981782-IUQDV739SLWQXV9HJOEX/0-7.jpeg Blogs - Back to Gas: Has the oil price bust leveled the playing field for US natural gas producers? https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1543780943148-6MWRKE492LI9DW8GRV0B/0-6.jpeg Blogs - Back to Gas: Has the oil price bust leveled the playing field for US natural gas producers? https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/2018/12/2/what-has-safety-got-to-do-with-business-performance-in-the-oil-and-gas-industry monthly 0.5 2018-12-09 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1543779870844-15ZSPKHJ336MW4AEIEKT/0-4.jpeg Blogs - What has safety got to do with business performance in the oil and gas industry? https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/2018/11/27/3a0bd8qug1qvrs9w1mo2d4tavio9q0 monthly 0.5 2018-12-09 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1543340312124-RY30J7YFYLL4XES2DKCO/0-3.jpeg Blogs - Upstream Downturn: Time for Change? https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1543340167524-QN0Z286RS314MT99W2ZN/0-2.jpeg Blogs - Upstream Downturn: Time for Change? https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1543341029848-3A19HW59FDT5VHHH8GHT/0.jpeg Blogs - Upstream Downturn: Time for Change? https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/tag/%23ccs monthly 0.5 https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/tag/%23carboncapturestorage monthly 0.5 https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/tag/%23collaboration monthly 0.5 https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/tag/%23naturalgas monthly 0.5 https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/tag/%23oilandgas monthly 0.5 https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/tag/%23investment monthly 0.5 https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/tag/%23renewables monthly 0.5 https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/tag/%23exploration monthly 0.5 https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/tag/%23investing monthly 0.5 https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/tag/%23electricity monthly 0.5 https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/tag/%23Permian monthly 0.5 https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/tag/%23oilprice monthly 0.5 https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/tag/%23evs monthly 0.5 https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/tag/%23flaring monthly 0.5 https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/tag/%23energytransition monthly 0.5 https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/tag/%23energysecurity monthly 0.5 https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/tag/%23energy monthly 0.5 https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/tag/%23shale monthly 0.5 https://www.capriole-llc.com/news/tag/%23operationalexcellence monthly 0.5 https://www.capriole-llc.com/clients daily 0.75 2018-12-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1543789434647-48VKAJ72XG98QR8LIOLQ/Barrow_Gas_Terminal_-_geograph.org.uk_-_360715.jpg Advisory - Major UK integrated energy company Conducted operational integrity and risk review for a major onshore gas plant and provided leadership coaching to follow up on the findings https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1543783100889-SYD8BPQ7AH0R51E3MBJT/a2ec8b847d8c383f21b3c8547b7e881a.jpeg Advisory - Major private equity firm Developed market analysis and related strategy for investment in deep water Gulf of Mexico production and transport infrastructure https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1543784874804-IW0NV6P8LU51ZEXBKZDF/Permian-Basin-Geology.png Advisory - Permian basin startup Strategic, business and petrotechnical support and advice to , a private-equity backed company startup https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1543784777593-1Q4N9TGC1GT0JY6CBTDG/FPSO-Floating-Production-Storage-and-Offloading-facility.png Advisory - International E&P comany Designing a strategy and plan for production operations and operational excellence in a new deep water field in west Africa https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1543784556883-YNWV5MJMMDCNF3TIHPNY/jpt_2018_1_xto_energy_delaware_basin_hero.jpg Advisory - Major private equity firm Review of several investment opportunities in North American onshore and offshore assets from exploration to midstream https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1543789252550-FVAF1MXK8V455FX48IFI/f3754f6a4a2416776cc5d24d749dff35-2.jpeg Advisory - Various short, ad hoc engagements Providing advice and support on a diverse range of topics in the oil and gas industry https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1544134467295-LDK2CV0LH2WGNM2ZSXI3/rough.jpg Advisory - Major UK integrated energy company Supported implementation of operational best practices and behaviors and provided coaching to executives and managers in the business https://www.capriole-llc.com/home daily 1.0 2022-01-18 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5bfd6686cef37236f1dc7fe2/1543338459632-15LTLTHL4BOD0IEQ032U/28540001+copy.jpg Capriole energy https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/573a04372fe131630fd25157/1469729752911-UFETSG39XPIFRSHOM0XH/hero_pattern.png Capriole energy